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European Sovereign Debt Crisis and Its Impact on China 's Import and Export Trad
发布时间2017-06-07 16:39:00

   

In October 2009, the new Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou announced that his predecessor had concealed a large number of fiscal deficits, sparked panic in the market and opened the prelude to the European sovereign debt crisis. As of December the same year, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and other countries of the sovereign bond yields also increased significantly, when the European sovereign debt crisis broke out. The second half of 2011, the European sovereign debt crisis appeared to France, Britain, Germany and other core countries spread the momentum, a major impact on the world economic situation.

In recent years, the issue of sovereign debt has become a universal phenomenon in the developed countries' economy. The deficit rate of all countries has been increasing. The proportion of fiscal deficit in 2010 is 147% of Ireland, 136% of Greece, 112 of Spain % Of Portugal, 94% of Italy, 53% of Italy, although the situation in Italy is slightly better, but also nearly 6% of the ceiling; perhaps the fiscal deficit represents only the level of government debt that year, and the total amount of debt to better explain a country's debt situation , As of 2010, the Italian government debt accounted for 1167% of GDP, Greece, 1249%, Portugal, 846%, the outbreak of Ireland's huge debt accounted for 829% of GDP, Spain, 663%. In fact, the debt problem in the whole of Europe is not optimistic. In the EU-27 countries, 12 of the country's government debt accounted for more than 60% of GDP, even the economic strength of France is also up to 825%, Germany followed by 767%. Although the United Kingdom is not in the euro area, but the scale of debt is almost Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, the sum of the four countries, the government debt ratio of 681%.

In view of the Greek government's financial situation deteriorated significantly, the international rating agencies have lowered the Greek credit rating, Fitch International credit rating agencies to Greece's sovereign credit rating from A down to BBB +, Standard & Poor's also Greece's long-term sovereign credit Rating down from BBB + to BB +. With the constant exposure of the other countries, the rating agencies have also lowered the credit rating of other countries. In April 2009, Standard & Poor's and Fitch lowered Ireland's sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA +. By the end of the year, Standard & Poor's lowered Portugal's sovereign credit rating outlook from negative to negative and downgraded Spain's sovereign credit rating to AA + Italy's situation is not optimistic, Moody's will be Italy's long-term sovereign debt rating down three, while reducing its short-term sovereign debt rating. France, Germany and the UK have also been sounded, and rating agencies will focus on the progress of the core countries in economic and fiscal reforms, taking into account the negative fundamentals of European economic fundamentals and financial markets.

At present, China and the EU trade relations increasingly close, the scale of trade has been rapidly expanding. The European sovereign debt crisis has continued to spread to Britain, France and Germany and other core countries, and may even cause the United States, Japan and other developed countries, the debt crisis, which will give China's import and export trade more adverse effects, thus affecting China's economic and trade development The

(1) the impact on the main import and export markets

Since the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis in 2009, China's export trade has seen negative growth. In 2009, China's exports to the EU grew at the fastest rate of -193%, followed by Japan's 1569%. China's exports to the EU in 2011 were US $ 3,560.2 billion, up 1438% from US $ 31,123.5 billion in 2010, and the growth rate was far Lower than the growth rate before 2008. At the same time, China's export growth rate to the United States has also experienced a significant decline from 2830% in 2010 to 1454% in 2011; and in 2010 and 2011, China's export growth rate of Japan is not very Big change.

The impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on China's import trade is less affected than the export trade, and the scale of imports has declined only in 2009, and it has resumed its previous import speed. China's total imports from the world in 2009 fell by 1118% in 2010 and 2011 to restore the previous import speed. Imports from the EU, the United States, Japan, as is the case, with China from the world imports show synchronous growth.

(2) the impact of the main import and export commodities

In recent years, China's exports to the EU, the United States, Japan's products are mainly concentrated in the mechanical and electrical products, textiles, metal products and chemical products and other departments. In 2009, China's exports to the European Union, the United States, Japan, the market showed a number of major commodities were negative growth, of which exports to the EU's largest decline in metal products, 483%, exports to the United States is the largest decline in goods is 362% Exports of Japanese goods fell most of the chemical products (344%); shows that China's exports of these three markets fell most of the metal products and chemical products. January-June 2012 export data show that China's exports to the EU of these major commodities than the same period showed a downward trend, the largest decline in textiles and raw materials and metal products; exports of US metal products increased by up to 129% But the growth rate is less than the growth rate in 2011; exports of Japanese furniture, toys, miscellaneous products increased by 182%, while chemical products have declined, down 186%.

In recent years, China's imports from the EU, the United States, Japan, the main products mainly concentrated in the mechanical and electrical products, transportation equipment, chemical products and optical, watches, medical equipment and other categories. In 2009, only the import scale of mechanical and electrical products and base metals and products declined. In 2010, the fastest growth rate of imports was the import of transport equipment, of which 729% were imported from the EU, 512% in the United States and 41% in the United States. In addition to the decline in imports of electromechanical products from the United States in 2011, the import of other commodities increased again. In the first half of 2012, the import of electromechanical products also experienced negative growth, and the import of transport equipment from these three markets increased significantly The On the whole, imports of electromechanical products have been reduced in recent years, while imports of transport equipment and optics, watches and medical equipment have been on the rise.

European sovereign debt crisis on China's export trade had a huge negative impact on China's export trade growth will be greatly slowed down; and China's import trade has less impact. China should actively take the initiative to stimulate domestic demand, reduce the excessive dependence on exports, while appropriate to increase imports, especially the import of key technologies in China, new energy technologies and other strategies have a positive role in promoting.