After two raised during the year, a cut, the domestic oil prices into the "wave of the times." People talk about the most or why the domestic oil prices significantly more expensive than the United States? Why oil prices with international standards and income is not convergence? What is the trend of international oil prices in the context of geopolitical turmoil? How to deal with the impact of high oil prices? To answer these questions must proceed from the current situation of China's energy development and challenges, starting from an independent and objective position, from a strategic perspective, long-term vision and global perspective to see, otherwise it will fall into the emotional misunderstanding of the logic of misunderstanding.

   First, why is China's oil price even more expensive than the United States?

Undeniably, the current domestic refined oil prices were significantly higher than the United States, the average price per liter of ordinary gasoline is about 1.8 yuan. Countries from the international market, the cost of crude oil is relatively close, because the quality of crude oil, price (FOB or CIF), freight, premiums and other differences and slightly different, that is, bare oil prices vary. China and the United States terminal oil sales price difference is the key difference. The United States is a typical high energy-consuming country, the car is a large displacement, the refrigerator is large capacity, despite the financial crisis hit US oil consumption by the 930 million tons before the crisis reduced to 840 million tons in 2011, but still the world Oil consumption of about 21.4% of the total, about twice the consumption of China's oil. The United States from the amount of levied 41 cents per gallon of fuel tax, accounting for the proportion of oil prices is about 10.7%. According to the calculation, about 30% of China's gasoline prices of various taxes and fees (consumption tax, value-added tax, urban maintenance and education surcharge, etc.). Thus, the tax deductible oil prices in the United States is basically close to China's higher oil prices are mainly higher taxes than the United States.

Second, why can the United States implement a low fuel tax policy?

Since the reasons for the difference in oil prices between China and the United States are taxes and fees, then why can the United States implement long-term low fuel tax policy? First, the United States has a relatively rich oil and gas resources, especially Alaska, offshore oil for strategic restrictions on mining, the United States is second only to Russia, Saudi Arabia's world's third largest producer of crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas and ethanol gasoline 2011 US oil production reached 437 million tons, in addition to recent years, the United States shale gas and other unconventional natural gas production made a major breakthrough. Second, not only the United States has the world's strongest overseas access to the comprehensive strength of resources, and in recent years, US energy strategy to make significant progress in the adjustment, the US oil dependence has fallen to below 50%, especially US oil imports mainly from Canada, Mexico , Venezuela and other US backyard and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other allies, the United States has basically not from Iran, Libya and other political instability in the region of oil imports, the United States is gradually moving towards energy independence. Third, the United States in the post-industrial development stage, oil consumption growth is stable or declined.

And China is basically do not have the conditions for the implementation of low oil prices, first, China is in the stage of rapid growth of oil consumption, in particular, China's 1000 car ownership is only about 70, the world average is three times the country, the average level of developed countries is China's 8 times the growth potential of China's vehicle oil is huge. Second, China's lack of oil resources, the current land production is basically close to the peak, little increase in production. Third, China's dependence on foreign oil has reached 56.5%, but the lack of overseas access to resources, especially more than half of China's oil imports from the Middle East and North Africa and other political unrest areas, this year the United States and Europe to step up sanctions against Iran, North and South Sudan war , Which makes China's oil imports face severe challenges. Fourth, the world has entered a high oil price era, we face the external environment has undergone a fundamental change. When the developed countries into the industrialization of energy, raw materials, low prices, industrial products, high prices, and now when China into the industrialization of energy and raw materials prices continue to rise, industrial prices continue to decline. Five is the international oil prices will not be because we are large customers and cheap, and low oil prices will not only short-term will cause trouble everywhere, more serious is to stimulate oil consumption, bringing more severe oil supply security issues.

Third, China's refined oil prices is the highest in the world?

When the people for the gasoline into the 8 yuan era complaining about the time, do not know, in the global context of China's refined oil prices up to a moderate level. Of course, some of the resources of oil prices are cheaper, even as Venezuela per liter of gasoline prices only about 3 cents. However, Europe and Japan and other resource shortages in countries and regions are generally implemented high oil prices policy, especially the two oil crisis forced Europe, Japan through high fuel tax to curb oil consumption. According to the latest report of the International Energy Agency, in February this year, the average price of gasoline in major European countries in between 12-15 yuan per liter, of which Italy up to 15 yuan per liter, taking into account the international oil prices since March continued to rise, European countries are suffering for oil prices to enter the 2 euro era. Europe's gasoline prices in some countries is about twice that of our country. While the price of gasoline in Japan is not low, the level of February is 11.8 yuan per liter, but also higher than about 50% of the country.

Domestic oil pricing mechanism, the choice of price decision-making in the end is to consider the US model or the European model? From the perspective of our future economic and social development, industrialization, urbanization trends, and the pattern of oil supply, there is no doubt that we can only study Europe and Japan.

Fourth, why domestic oil prices with international standards and income is not convergence?

The problem is that many people often mention the problem, but this is obviously irrational thinking, or that is a voice on the network to vent their rhetoric. Because we are very clear that any country, any one oil company will not because we are low income, we are poor, will be sold to us cheap oil, but will not provide free oil relief to us. Before the reform and opening up, the domestic oil supply is relatively loose period, we can also implement low oil prices policy, and even the implementation of the plan rationing. However, today is different, we have been integrated into the tide of economic globalization, more than half of the oil supply from the international market imports, the future dependence on foreign may even reach about 70%.

In essence, the era of globalization as a commodity in the world of free configuration, also has a global unified market price system. At present, there are three important crude oil futures contracts in the world, namely, the high-sulfur crude oil of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the "West Texas Intermediate Oil (WTI)" futures contract, the London International Petroleum Exchange IPE) Brent crude oil futures contracts and the Singapore Exchange (SGX) Dubai acidic crude oil futures contracts. Among them, most of Europe and the United States crude oil pricing reference Brent crude oil futures and West Texas oil futures. Of course, the domestic oil price is the international crude oil market price, rather than a country's terminal sales price, the terminal price in different countries and regions can be described as vastly different.

However, as a carrier of income - the workers are still unable to unify the free configuration on a global scale, the free movement of workers is strictly limited by the nationality, which also determines the price of the workers - income can not be global The formation of a unified standard, that is, the income of workers can not be with the international standards. Even within the same country, income levels vary from region to region in different periods. Like the north of China, these first-tier cities have been developed, the residents income is relatively high, while the central and western regions, especially in rural areas, the income is still very low.

Fifth, the next stage of international oil prices trend?

If you look at the oil market in the near future, you will find a very interesting phenomenon, that is, when WTI oil prices close to 110 dollars when the U-turn back. It seems that short-term look at $ 110 is a psychological high price. Of course, if a major incident such as the war, the international oil prices rushed to 150 US dollars are possible. However, according to the current global economic growth fundamentals, the annual fluctuations in oil prices is about 110 US dollars, or WTI oil prices in the 110 US dollars or more running time will be more limited. So, taking into account the current global 90 million barrels / day oil demand increases, the rise in the cost of oil exploration and mining, as well as OPEC and other oil-producing countries can bear the price and other factors, the lower limit of international oil prices is about 80 dollars, or WTI oil prices in the 80 dollars below the possibility of running will be very small.

Oil price forecast has great uncertainty. The recent Iranian nuclear issue is undoubtedly the biggest uncertainties affecting international oil prices this year. However, the objective and rational view of the situation, in view of the United States is more to solve domestic problems, to be busy with the presidential election, so the probability of a short-term outbreak of war is not so big. On the other hand, even if there are some conflicts of war, if the real blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, then Iran will be enemies with the world, it will not get any good results. Coupled with the recent Japanese and South Korean countries have taken a series of diplomatic steps to seek alternative oil imports from Iran. In addition, the United States and Europe and other major powers into the election year, the election needs will increase the commodity futures market supervision, will suppress the oil futures speculation. Therefore, the next stage, with the arrival of the demand for off-season, the current international oil prices in about 10 to 15 US dollars / barrel of the geographical premium, will gradually squeeze out, that is, the international oil prices there is a moderate possibility of moderate decline.

Overall, this year the world economy will be moderate and low growth, oil supply and demand is still relatively loose, the global liquidity is still relatively loose, the dollar remained weak trend, and geopolitical risk and other factors make the international oil prices will remain relatively high and volatile situation, preliminary Expected, the New York market WTI crude oil futures average price of about $ 100 a barrel, up 5 US dollars per barrel last year. Recently, international agencies have made predictions on international oil prices. April 2012 IMF World Economic Outlook Spring report is expected in 2012 world oil prices (WTI, Brent, Dubai three oil prices simple average) for $ 114.7 a barrel, up 10.7%. US Energy Information Service April "short-term energy outlook" is expected in 2012 WTI crude oil futures average price of 105.7 yuan per barrel, an increase of 11.4%. At the end of April, Reuters survey of 38 international agencies, 2012 Brent crude oil futures average price of $ 117.3 / barrel, up 5.8%.

6, how to deal with rising international oil prices?

First of all, from a strategic point of view we really should implement a high fuel tax policy. Should be the implementation of the true sense of the fuel tax, the use of price tax, levied in the terminal link, rather than the current price of tax, in the production sector levy, not play any inhibitory effect of consumer behavior, we only feel high oil prices. Price tax leverage is the most useful tool for saving resources, we must make the use of resources to save, because the oil resources are not renewable, the existing resources to open is not enough. From the historical perspective, the first industrialized countries, about 1 billion people, in up to 100 years of time consumed 60% of the world's energy. And now China, India, including nearly 3 billion people into the industrialization stage of development. Although the developed countries, oil demand has been saturated, or even negative growth, but the developed countries, the stock of oil consumption is huge, emerging economies can only be less than half of the world's oil supply to competition, we can see the future of oil resources will be more difficult The greater the bigger. Therefore, we must through the fuel tax and other leverages to promote China's conservation-oriented production methods and the establishment of consumption patterns.

Second, we must increase investment and continuously improve our energy efficiency. High fuel tax revenue and part of the energy income, to vigorously into the field to improve energy efficiency. Such as production processes, the development of stringent energy efficiency standards, requiring manufacturers to produce low fuel consumption, energy-efficient cars and home appliances and other products. Increase investment in energy efficiency technology research and development, and to produce energy-efficient products to give subsidies.

Third, we must vigorously develop solar energy, wind energy, biomass and other renewable resources. Especially to speed up the process of R & D electric vehicle technology to promote the revolutionary progress of oil substitution. Vigorously develop renewable energy is not only meet the requirements of improving the domestic ecological environment, but also meet the global trend of response to global warming.

Fourth, we should also based on domestic, to further accelerate the exploration and development of domestic resources. First, we must vigorously improve the existing resource recovery. The second is to increase the shale gas, shale oil and other unconventional oil and gas resources exploration and development efforts in recent years, the United States in the shale gas and other unconventional resources development has made a major breakthrough in China, part of the resources also has great potential. Third, we should speed up the development of marine oil and gas development strategy, and strive to offshore oil and gas resources development in technology, equipment and the actual production and other aspects of a substantial breakthrough.

In addition, we should increase the international energy cooperation, continue to adhere to the "going out" strategy to expand overseas oil and gas resources supply capacity, to further diversify the source of oil imports, and constantly improve the domestic oil and gas price formation mechanism, and actively reform and improve the oil and gas market system and supervision System, accelerate the strategic reserve of oil and commercial reserve system, all-round protection of China's energy security.